1.) People on the fence vote for the outcomes they assume the majority want, even if they lean in the opposite direction.
2.) The effort, risk, or perceived cost to express their opposing or nuanced opinion is overridden by the convenience of conformity and/or apathy.
3.) We are bad at assumptions. Therefore, we are bad at assuming what the majority wants.
4.) Observable minorities look like majorities.
If you combine 1-4, minority positions can easily win a majority vote because of flawed perceptions and the perceived cost to disagree.
The frequency illusion amplifies the effect of “new” and tricks us into quickly thinking that it is “most.”
Follow the incentive of the sources feeding you information. Lenses are focused on driving dollars via clicks and longer visits, not facts.
The incentive is to entertain, not inform.
You are a terrible estimator of the social cost to be different.
Iterations 